Pemodelan Risiko Keterlambatan Pengiriman dalam Rantai Pasok Menggunakan Regresi Logistik

Taufik Rahman; Faiq Nurraihan

Authors

Taufik Rahman Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Nusantara Lampung
Faiq Nurraihan Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Nusantara Lampung

Keywords:

keterlambatan pengiriman, rantai pasok, regresi logistik, validasi temporal, kebocoran data

Abstract

Keterlambatan pengiriman memengaruhi keandalan layanan dan membutuhkan model risiko yang dapat ditafsirkan sebelum pengiriman dilaksanakan. Penelitian ini mengembangkan regresi logistik berbasis dataset terbuka DataCo dengan memperhatikan unit analisis, kebocoran informasi, serta evaluasi temporal. Sebanyak 180.519 baris produk diagregasi menjadi 65.752 pesanan; setelah 2.855 pesanan dibatalkan dikeluarkan, analisis mencakup 62.897 pesanan pada Januari 2015–Januari 2018. Data dibagi secara kronologis menjadi pelatihan 44.027, validasi 9.435, dan pengujian 9.435 pesanan. Regresi logistik berpenalti L2 digunakan karena seluruh pengiriman First Class yang memenuhi kriteria analisis tercatat terlambat. Model memperoleh ROC-AUC 0,7471, average precision 0,8385, dan Brier score 0,1879 pada data uji. Ambang 0,485 yang dipilih pada data validasi menghasilkan sensitivitas 53,95%, spesifisitas 90,49%, dan presisi 88,49%. Analisis sensitivitas tanpa First Class menunjukkan odds ratio Second Class sebesar 6,03 dan Same Day sebesar 1,30 terhadap Standard Class. Namun, model yang hanya menggunakan moda layanan mencapai ROC-AUC 0,7441 dan Brier score 0,1879; tambahan prediktor memberikan peningkatan diskriminasi yang kecil. Temuan menegaskan dominasi konfigurasi janji layanan dalam label keterlambatan DataCo, sekaligus membatasi interpretasi kausal terhadap moda pengiriman. Model layak sebagai dasar penyaringan risiko, tetapi memerlukan validasi eksternal dan informasi operasional yang lebih rinci sebelum implementasi.

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